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When the Russian President visited India four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, limited by the pandemic, centered around talks on strategic and defense cooperation between the two leaders.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that era came before a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious rhetoric and the introduction of substantial trade tariffs.

"Against this backdrop, the importance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi is profound, serving as a symbol of resilient relations and a defiance of outside coercion," analysts note.

A Pivotal Moment for Both Nations

The summit takes place at a delicate moment. President Putin comes following rejecting latest diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, confident due to claimed advances by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the primary importance of this engagement is its very occurrence," commented a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a movement toward something resembling normal international relations."

For India, the stakes are particularly elevated. The country navigates a difficult international environment, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when European ambassadors released a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a sharp rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable interference.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The India-Russia bond dates back to the Soviet period and is firmly rooted, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary arms provider. This alliance was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, recently failed peace efforts, accusations mounted, leading to economic penalties and a major chill in US-India ties.

"Consequently, India has reverted to its default strategy of 'hedging'," noted a foreign policy expert. "This demonstrates to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "Beijing continues to be the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst added.

The deepening partnership between Russia and China has raised alarms in Delhi, leading to efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to diversify its military imports, shrinking its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in the past few years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: purchase enough Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but avoid so dependent that a sudden cutoff would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Increased economic cooperation is likely to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has publicly stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil purchases is central. Although the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, new sanctions have slowed activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has moved to boost imports of US energy.

A Russian official admitted "hurdles" in economic cooperation but said it would proceed uninterrupted. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "minor" and "temporary" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the topic of Ukraine is expected to be addressed mainly through India's consistent appeal for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader has access to both sides, India lacks the necessary leverage to significantly influence the war," the analyst said. "Aside from encouraging talks, its capacity to effect change is constrained."

Ultimately, despite the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," guided by national interest in a volatile world.